Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Nehru once suggested India keep away from the power politics of groups. But is it today entangled in every competing power political group all at once? Washington is becoming steadily clearer about how it will threaten BRICS countries with tariffs, restrictions and violence. I'm Afshin Ratanzi and you're watching New Order.
West Asia has all week been under the shadow of what Trump is threatened to be civilizational destruction. Iran for its part said it would respond to any Trump Netanyahu action with a great surprise that the world would remember for centuries. All this as NATO countries continue to back Gaza genocide and killing civilians in Lebanon and on Russian beaches. India was threatened with 100% tariffs for its record import of Russian energy and the B in brics. Brazil now has a quarter of all its exports hit by Trump tariffs. In Hyderabad, brics including Iran and the UAE discussed anti corruption though not probably a corrupt Trump or a corrupt city of London. BRICS also met in the Indian city of Bhopal infamous for NATO nation corruption and chemical catastrophe cover up to discuss culture. That's just days after NATO powers all but destroyed a thousand year old UNESCO site in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Trump revoked the visa of Brazil's ambassador to the usa.
At the end of the show we'll be joined by New Order Zahra Khan to answer viewers questions asked on our social media. With me now though is Professor Martin Fernandez, former director of the BRICS Policy center in Rio. Professor Fernandez, welcome to New Order. You know professor, do you get the feeling the gloves are off? I mean there was a Russian official with the Minister of Defense of Brazil talking to each other. They were talking but the USA intensifying tariffs on Brazil ahead of the October elections there and ahead of the day Delhi summit. Have BRICS nations got what it takes for the fight?
[00:02:03] Speaker B: The United States Trump imposed tariffs on Brazil and it's very important to say that these tariffs are in fact sanctions because they are politically motivated. They are tariffs that are imposed because of domestic issues or Brazil because in some way the United States is trying to interfere in our elections. Brazil will have elections in October.
So there are many attempts to guide the results of our elections. You said now about the visa of the ambassador was rejected by the United States and in fact it's another signal of attempt of Trump administration to interfere in our position.
So and there is another fact, that candidate that is in opposition of Lula went to the United States and there is a conversation with Grubio and after that the tariffs are imposed on Brazil. As you said before, Trump challenged BRICs with 100% of tariffs if BRICS continues or advances its agenda of de dollarization. But then he started to put tariffs in a bilateral way, even with India, for example, 50% of tariffs the last year because India is buying oil from Russia, for example.
So I read these tariffs as in fact sanctions that are political motivated.
And in the case of Brazil, there is this attempt of Trump to impose an hegemony that is a little bit lost in the Western hemisphere, in fact in the national security document.
[00:04:22] Speaker A: But has President Lula. I've interviewed him. He hasn't come on my shows since he got out of jail. Since that interview he did. Has he got what it takes? Because you mentioned Rubio there, the Viceroy of Venezuela. Arguably, isn't it Lula's fault what happened to Venezuela? Didn't he veto the membership of Venezuela to brics at the 2024 summit in Kazakhstan? Doesn't Lula take some of the blame?
Because if Venezuela had been in brics then Russia, India, China, South Africa and Brazil could have stopped the kidnapping of its leader.
[00:05:03] Speaker B: I think there are two ways to interpret this.
One is that I'm not sure that if Venezuela is in the brics, the other BRICS countries will in some way go to give a support, a more substantial support.
Because now you are seeing Iran, there is some trade or narrative movements, but not a substantial movement in the support in Iran.
[00:05:35] Speaker A: Of course they, yeah, they killed the leader of Iran. They didn't kidnap.
[00:05:39] Speaker B: Exactly. The United States tried to think that things are so easy so that what they did in Venezuela they can replicate or transfer across the world as for example neglecting all the kind of different histories, contexts, etc. But in the case of Venezuela, you are sure in Kazan, for example, there is this veto of Lula in some way because sometime before during the elections, Brazil did not recognize the result of the elections. And in some way Brazil as other countries, as for example India or other countries in the BRICS tries to maintain kind of non alignment position and try to construct the idea of Greeks as not an anti Western but as a non western.
And so I think that there is also this movement that Lula can think that include Venezuela can in some way after including Iran, for example.
[00:07:04] Speaker A: It's a bit late professor, arguably for that. I don't think Venezuela run by Marco Rubio is going to be useful in brics. But my point is surely that India, India didn't care when the United States told it to stop importing Russian energy.
India still has close ties to Iran even as it's being bombed by the United States India believes in that multipolarity. But Brazil, the biggest country in, in that hemisphere apart from the United States and Canada. I mean, is it even talking about what's happening in Cuba?
I mean last time I spoke to Lula, he said the Cuban doctors provided an extraordinary service in Brazil. He was talking about COVID I think and the Brazilian government sent the Cuban doctors away because of course Bolsonaro Sr. His son is now running for election in October, said he didn't want Cuban doctors in Brazil. But Lula was saying all those kind words about Cuba.
What's he doing now?
China's still helping Iran.
India is still in close ties with the UAE and Iran and China and Russia. But what is Brazil doing with Cuba?
[00:08:22] Speaker B: You know that Cuba now is in a very complicated situation.
It's without energy. The last energy supply came from Russia, for example.
And in fact there is a certain passivity related to Cuba in the case of Brazil.
But I think that you have to understand also what's happening in Latin America now because in fact all the kinds of retaliation of Trump.
It's because Brazil and probably Uruguay and a little bit Mexico are the only countries that are not automatically aligned with the United States in Latin America.
[00:09:14] Speaker A: Well, there's Nicaragua in Central America, of course, lot Nicaragua of course.
[00:09:19] Speaker B: No, I'm talking about South America. You are sure.
But in fact what's happened is that Brazil is surrounding by countries like Argentina that Brazil this last week surround downgrading the position of of Argentina because Milei went to Brazil to do like propaganda for the candidate that is the in the opposition and disrespecting our president and also people from the Justice League for example in Brazil.
[00:10:05] Speaker A: So I think they broke off relations. I think Milei yeah. Is Persona non grata in Brazil. But then tell me how then given, I mean I don't know when you were at the BRICS policy Center or when you returned whether you realized the level of violence, the level of as you say, sanctions, tariffs, sanctions that was going to be hit at BRICS countries. How can the uae, how can India help Brazil overcome as you say, the whole of Latin America's Washington bias against brics?
[00:10:42] Speaker B: I'm not sure because in fact related brics Latin America and Caribbean are is underrepresented in Greeks because most of the expansion of brics went to Middle east and Asia countries. It's not because they are not invited because Argentina during now Fernandez was invited. And then when for example Milei came to power, he said no to Greeks.
And you have also partners that are From Latin America Cuba is a partner during Kazan summit they created this category of partners in Cuba and Bolivia are partners.
But you have a very complicated situation now and in fact if you read this national security document of the United States there it's very clear that they are prioritizing the western hemisphere as it you can say backward of the United States.
And of course this idea of the moral doctrine that is the American for the Americans that the United states creating the 9th century is being revived now. But during the 19th century this idea is to put Europe out of the continent. And now the big question for the United States is to expel China from Latin America.
China became for example our main Brazil main trade partner, for example and China has been investing a lot in infrastructure projects in Latin America etc. Etc.
So in some way you cannot understand this situation in Latin America without understand the broader landscape revalry between the United States and in China, for example.
And also Trump created this America shield that is composed by most countries of Latin America and it's a kind of platform to deal with migration, with security, border challenges, drug trafficking, etc. Etc.
[00:13:27] Speaker A: Professor Martin Fernandez will continue after the break. Keep watching New Order.
You're watching New Order. Professor Marta Fernandez, you were talking about how BRICS has emphasis on topics like migration. I think they were discussing culture in India this week and anti corruption officials from all BRICS countries.
Let's talk about something concrete that BRICS is actually doing rather than all the dreams of multinodal activity in Brazil. You have pics and elo, I understand, which is a bit like India's rupee.
Now there's no real progress and the UAE is just starting. J1 these are all like credit cards that are outside of Visa and MasterCard which arguably are a side of the US hegemonic power because Visa and MasterCard can be withdrawn as they were say against Russia at a moment's notice if the CIA thinks it's right to do so. Why is it then that there's no like here in the UAE we have Enbridge.
Russia has SPFs. These are alternatives to the SWIFT system.
And India has similar attempts at this new progress in Brazil on a alternative to the Swift system to get it out of this $swift system that NATO countries dominate.
[00:15:06] Speaker B: Yes, I think it's a big debate inside brics especially after the Ukrainian war and all the sanctions that are imperial imposed on Russia all the countries of the global south and upbricks became of field themselves as very vulnerable because from one day to another their reserves in Dora can be frozen for example and they recognize how dollar is being used as a weapon to discipline countries, et cetera. So there is this big discussion about advancing trading local currencies.
And in fact Lula during our summit last year here in Brazil, he said in a very explicit way the need for an alternative currency of the BRICs. For example, after the challenge of trump to put 100% of tariff, lots of countries start to think de dollarization as a kind of forbidding word. You cannot say de dollarization has to say.
[00:16:30] Speaker A: That's the point, isn't it? So Russia wasn't scared, I mean more predictably because it kicked it off, speeded up the whole BRICS process. But India didn't wasn't fearful of the tariffs and the UAE isn't fearful. India has upi.
What is it about fear And Lula and Brazil. Why is nothing has really progressed since Lula made that speech last year?
[00:16:59] Speaker B: In fact you have to recognize, for example Dilma is the president now of NDB of the bank of BRICS and has this objective and is advancing in the direction of this objective to put 30% or even more of the portfolio of the NDB of the bank of Brits in local currency. For example, we have here PC that is exactly the same of upi that is these digital payments.
[00:17:37] Speaker A: That's the Indian upi.
[00:17:39] Speaker B: Yeah, Pix is from Brazil and you have been subjected to several kinds of intimidations to abolishing pics. For example, who are they?
[00:17:53] Speaker A: Like Visa and MasterCard executives. I should just tell our audience Dilma, you're referring to Dilma Rousseff, the one time guerrilla fighter in Brazil against CIA backed dictatorship who became president when Lula went to jail and who is now the head of the new Development bank.
[00:18:08] Speaker B: Yes, but in fact this innovation circulates a lot in Brazil and in fact the United States and the intermediaries the credit cards are losing money.
And it's why Lula is under lots of pressure.
And every week he repeated that nobody has the right to put hands on pics because PICS is our sovereignty way of payment for.
[00:18:43] Speaker A: Well, so there is. So there is that if not anything like the UAE's swift alternative Enbridge and Saudi Arabia has it too actually. Or Russia's SPFs. But let's, I mean try and end on some optimism here. Explain the Lula Modi rare earths deal significance of that because that seems to be a new formation that is being built. Why is India and Brazil going into this rare earth steel?
[00:19:10] Speaker B: Yeah, I think that to understand Geopolitical today the most important thing is to understand these seeking for forcret comminerals that are so important for, for artificial intelligence, for the energetic transition, for defense, etc. Etc.
And what happens is that if you look in Latin America, for example, Brazil is one of the largest countries that has a rare earth minerals and you have lots of lichu also in Latin America.
So there is this kind of competition between the biggest ones, United States and China.
And of course for Brazil it's very important to diversify its relations, not to be subjected to this kind of dependence of the United States or even of China. So for Brazil, BRICS is so important also to diversify its relationship.
[00:20:30] Speaker A: How can India be sure of the stability of Brazil? I mean, ironically, India is absolutely sure of the stability of say the uae, which you know, has been bombed recently. It's sure of Iran, which has defeated the United States.
But you know, Bolsonaro is running for election in October.
That's basically a Washington cutout.
And we know how previously civil wars have been catalyzed by United States policy.
How stable is Brazil as say a partner for India in the rare earth steel?
[00:21:13] Speaker B: I think Brazil is a staple country, is a democracy. Of course Brazil has as a developing country all the kind of problems, as for example a high inequality, domestic inequality in Brazil that has to do with its history with colonization, etc. Etc.
At the same time, this diversification, of course it will succeed if Lula will be re elected because of course the opponent of Lula, that is Flavio Bolsonaro, that is the son of Bolsonaro, is the one that is in favor of an automatic alignment with the United States, for example.
So to be very, very difficult to advance this idea that Brazil and India are constructing because both countries are also trying to industrialize themselves more especially Brazil. Brazil is still now a country that export commodities, soybeans, oil, etc. So you have a reserve of critical minerals, but you need to add the value, you need to have the technology to processing, manufacturing.
And this is why this idea of governance of critical minerals is so important.
[00:23:00] Speaker A: Professor, we're out of time, alas. Professor Marta Fernandez.
[00:23:04] Speaker B: Thank you, thank you, thank you.
[00:23:12] Speaker A: Now it's questions from you, the viewers, through Zahra Khan.
[00:23:16] Speaker C: Through Zahra Khan and X Walissa has asked a house divided against itself cannot stand. Is that true? All over the world right now, brics,
[00:23:24] Speaker B: us whatever else, it's not that bad.
[00:23:26] Speaker A: I thought Marta Fernandez, Professor Marta Fernandez from the BRICS Policy center was trying to say that they were trying to hold strong they're not a house divided necessarily.
The phrase, of course, from Abraham Lincoln, from the Gospel of Mark. Although in a week where NATO nations have been bombing crusader castles. A biblical quote, probably relevant at this point. I don't think it is divided. I mean, BRICS was never supposed to have all the countries speaking, speaking with one voice. It's just supposed to have all the countries speaking in harmony. And given as what Professor Fernandez was saying, if you have an attack from the US Hegemon, at least they're all gonna be united and undivided as a house against us hegemonic power.
[00:24:13] Speaker C: And continuing to talk about brics, Sophie has asked the only relevant question within the frame of BRICS is who were the original architects of this group? Because only by that, she hypothesizes the true nature of the union can be defined.
[00:24:24] Speaker A: Yeah, who is brics?
You on going underground? We talked to Jim o'. Neill. We're hoping to get him for this program. New order bricks, or at least brick was from Jim o', Neill, who used to be at Goldman Sachs. Famous Goldman Sachs because it's involved in scandal after scandal. It was involved in toxic mortgages, not Jim o', Neill, I should say. Toxic mortgages that led to the 2008 Western Economic Financial crisis. But he adapted it from Rick, which is Russia, India, China, and that was Yevgeny Primakov, the Russian foreign minister in 2006. There was Putin, Manmohan Singh, and Hu Jintao, and they all met as Rick. So then it became BRICS with Brazil and of course Lula. And now it's with everyone, with President al Nahyan, with Mr. Modi.
[00:25:21] Speaker C: Right. And finally, Babi Habib has asked, can crypto be trusted? Really? Are there even regulations in place for it? And I think they've referenced the FTX crash.
[00:25:29] Speaker A: I think Witkoff and Trump can certainly trust crypto. They're doing quite well. A billion dollars did they get.
It has to be noted that crypto, unless quantum computing can destroy the blockchain by combating the mathematics that's built into crypto. Crypto has been an amazing lifeline for those trying to evade US Hegemonic sanctions, brics, countries using it all the time to ev the sanctions that have killed actually 38 million people between 1971 and 2021, according to the British health journal, the Lancet. So it's been depended on and will be depended on no matter how insecure or secure it is. But it has to be noted, the CIA pumps and dumps it too, and they used it with FTX as a vehicle with Ukraine. So beware of crypto, but use it if you need to.
[00:26:18] Speaker C: Thank you option for those answers. Back again next week.
[00:26:20] Speaker A: Sarakant thank you and remember to follow us on xewaudertv and ask your questions. Maybe it'll be yours that gets answered. Next Sunday we'll continue tracking the forces driving the world's transition and where India fits within it.
